The exiting vendor
The one adversary who does everything right for a long time, which is the point.
- What they want
- A run of orders taken and not filled, at the moment their reputation is worth the most.
- How they earn
- Everything in flight at once. The size of the payoff is proportional to the trust built beforehand, which is why the good ones wait.
- What it costs them
- Months or years of genuine trading. That is a real cost and it is why this is rarer than the cheap attacks, and larger when it happens.
- How you meet them
- As a well reviewed vendor with high volume, recent activity and a clean dispute record. Every signal you are told to check reads correctly.
- What gives them away
- Very little in advance. Sometimes a sudden change in listing pattern, unusually favourable pricing, or pressure toward larger orders. None of it is reliable.
- What stops them
- Nothing prevents it. Escrow and order sizing limit what any single exit can take from you, which is a different and more achievable goal.
Why reputation cannot solve this
Reputation measures past behaviour and is used to predict future behaviour, which works right up until somebody decides the future is going to be different. The decision is invisible from outside and it is the only thing that matters.
Worse, the incentive runs the wrong way. The more trust an account accumulates, the larger the payoff for spending it. So the accounts best positioned to do this are exactly the ones every guide tells you to prefer, including this one.
The account takeover version
Frequently the vendor never decided anything. A well established account gets taken over, and whoever holds it runs exactly this pattern using history somebody else earned. From your side the two are indistinguishable, which is another reason the countermeasure has to be about limiting exposure rather than judging character.
What actually limits the damage
- Keep orders in escrow. The escrow arrangement means the platform cannot move funds alone, and a vendor cannot either. It does not make a vendor deliver and it does make an unfilled order a dispute rather than a loss.
- Never pay outside it, for any reason. See the off escrow persuader, who is often the same person.
- Size orders so a single failure is survivable. The only variable fully under your control.
- Watch recency rather than totals. A long record with a quiet recent stretch describes somebody who was reliable, not somebody who is.
- Notice pressure toward larger orders. Not proof, and it is the one behavioural signal that shows up before rather than after.